国际生殖健康/计划生育杂志

国际生殖健康/计划生育 ›› 2011, Vol. 30 ›› Issue (3): 190-194.

• 论著 • 上一篇    下一篇

中国出生缺陷致残现状与预测

张 蕾, 陈 功, 郑晓瑛   

  1. 100871 北京大学人口研究所/世界卫生组织生殖健康合作中心、北京大学中国残疾人事业发展研究中心
  • 收稿日期:1900-01-01 修回日期:1900-01-01 出版日期:2011-05-15 发布日期:2011-05-15

Present Status and Future Trend of Persons with Disability Caused by Birth Defect in China

ZHANG Lei, CHEN Gong， ZHENG Xiao-ying   

  1. Institute of Population Research/WHO Collaboration Center, Peking University, Beijing 100871, China
  • Received:1900-01-01 Revised:1900-01-01 Published:2011-05-15 Online:2011-05-15

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摘要： 目的：评估中国出生缺陷致残现状，并估算出生缺陷致残人群未来50年变化趋势。方法：利用2006年全国残疾人抽样调查样本与加权数据，进行特征描述分析；结合人口、发展与环境预测模型（Population Development and Environment Model， PDE模型）推算出生缺陷致残人群变动规模。结果：①从调查样本数据分析结果来看，出生缺陷致残率为0.68%，出生缺陷致残人口占残疾总人口的10.66%。②受年龄的影响，各残疾类别的性别构成不同。③言语残疾一级（极重度）致残比例达到64.87%，智力残疾达到41.08%，听力残疾为39.94%。四级（轻度）致残比例排在前2位的是肢体残疾和视力残疾，分别为44.39%和33.48%。④地区经济发展水平越高，出生缺陷致残率越低。⑤方案二预测结果显示，2050年出生缺陷致残人口规模将是2006年的5倍。结论：出生缺陷致残人口规模的持续增长将阻碍中国人力资本的快速有效积累，给患者、家庭、社会带来沉重的经济负担。

关键词: 出生缺陷, 致残人, 现状, 预测

Abstract: Objective： To evaluate present status of population with disability caused by birth defect（BD），and estimate the trend in future 50 years. Methods： Quantitative analysis had been carried out based on the sample data and weighted data of National Sample Survey on Disability in 2006. Combine with PDE model to estimate the changing tendency of population with disability caused by BD. Results： ① Based on sample data，prevalence rate of disabilities caused by BD in 2006 was 0.68%， percentage of total disabled population was 10.66%.② Affected by age structure，the sex distribution was different of each type of disabilities caused by BD. ③ Percentages of grade 1（ｅｘｔｒｅｍｅｌｙ ｓｅｖｅｒｅ） ｏf speech， intelligent and listen disability caused by BD were 64.87%， 41.08% and 39.94% respectively. Percentages of grade 4（low?鄄grade） of physical and visual disability were 44.39% and 33.48%, which ranked the first two of total 5 disabilities. ④The higher socio?鄄economical development level， the lower prevalence rate of disabilities caused by BD. ⑤ The high scenario showed that the size of the population with disability caused by BD in 2050 would be 5 times of that in 2006. Conclusions： The continuing growth of the population with disability caused by BD will hinder China’s rapid and effective human capital accumulation， and bring a heavy economic burden on patients， their families， and whole society.

Key words: Birth defects, Persons with disability, Present status, Forecasting