Abstract: Objective： To evaluate present status of population with disability caused by birth defect（BD），and estimate the trend in future 50 years. Methods： Quantitative analysis had been carried out based on the sample data and weighted data of National Sample Survey on Disability in 2006. Combine with PDE model to estimate the changing tendency of population with disability caused by BD. Results： ① Based on sample data，prevalence rate of disabilities caused by BD in 2006 was 0.68%， percentage of total disabled population was 10.66%.② Affected by age structure，the sex distribution was different of each type of disabilities caused by BD. ③ Percentages of grade 1（ｅｘｔｒｅｍｅｌｙ ｓｅｖｅｒｅ） ｏf speech， intelligent and listen disability caused by BD were 64.87%， 41.08% and 39.94% respectively. Percentages of grade 4（low?鄄grade） of physical and visual disability were 44.39% and 33.48%, which ranked the first two of total 5 disabilities. ④The higher socio?鄄economical development level， the lower prevalence rate of disabilities caused by BD. ⑤ The high scenario showed that the size of the population with disability caused by BD in 2050 would be 5 times of that in 2006. Conclusions： The continuing growth of the population with disability caused by BD will hinder China’s rapid and effective human capital accumulation， and bring a heavy economic burden on patients， their families， and whole society.

Key words: Birth defects, Persons with disability, Present status, Forecasting